There is an understandable rhythm to admissions and marketing planning. Open events return to familiar places in the calendar, campaigns are refreshed, prospectuses updated and budgets adjusted. Yet the recruitment landscape has changed significantly. Repeating last year’s activity, even with improvements, may no longer be an adequate starting point.
Planning for the next cycle needs to begin with the market itself. Schools need to understand how the number and profile of families within reach are changing, where demand may come under pressure and where opportunities are emerging. They also need to know how they are perceived because demographic opportunity does not automatically translate into demand.
A smaller national market will produce very different local effects
The latest Department for Education projections point to a substantial contraction in the school-age population in England. The number of pupils attending state-funded schools is projected to fall by 726,000, or 9.3%, between 2026 and 2031. Within this, nursery and primary numbers are expected to decline by 473,000. Secondary numbers, which had continued to grow as earlier population peaks moved through the system, have now begun to fall too.
These projections are not forecasts for the independent sector and they do not determine the future of any individual school. They do set the broader context in which schools will be competing. In many areas, the pool of children will become smaller at the same time as affordability and parental confidence remain under pressure.
The 2026 ISC Census provides a more immediate view from within the independent sector. Like-for-like pupil numbers fell by 3.8% between 2025 and 2026 following a 2.4% decline in the previous year. The latest fall was not distributed evenly. Prep and primary pupil numbers declined more sharply than secondary numbers while some established entry points experienced decreases of more than 6%.
Our demographic and catchment analysis frequently reveals greater variation than national or sector figures suggest. Schools operating in the same county and occasionally only a few miles apart can face markedly different levels of opportunity and risk. Local birth rates, housing development, family movement, transport links and affordability combine differently in every market. Changes within a particular age group can also affect schools at different times depending on their entry points and pupil journey.
This variation can easily be obscured by overall roll. A stable pupil total may conceal weakening demand at an important intake that will affect the school for several years. Pressure in one year group can equally distract attention from an opportunity elsewhere. The strategic picture becomes clearer when leaders examine demand by age, geography and entry point rather than relying on a single total.
Demographics are only part of the market picture
Catchment analysis also needs to be considered alongside competition and perception. Through our work, we regularly find that the schools families actually consider are not always those leadership teams regard as their closest competitors. A school outside the expected competitor set may be drawing families from a particular geographical area or gaining ground with parents seeking a different balance of academic ambition, pastoral support and value.
The difference between a school’s self-perception and its position in the minds of families can be equally revealing. Parents may see a school as more academic, more nurturing, more selective, more expensive or better value than leaders assume. These perceptions influence whether the school enters a family’s consideration set before an enquiry has been submitted or a visit arranged.
Our research with parents shows how competitive that consideration set can be. Among those who looked seriously at alternatives alongside their final choice, two-thirds considered at least two or three other schools. For senior school entry, more than 10% seriously considered four or more alternatives. Around three-quarters of London families had other schools under serious consideration with the range of competitors tending to widen for senior school decisions.
Families are therefore comparing schools throughout the admissions journey rather than evaluating each one in isolation. They compare the relevance of the proposition, the quality of their interactions and the confidence each school gives them about their child’s future. A school may run an effective admissions process on its own terms but still lose ground if another school appears more responsive or offers a clearer point of difference.
Understanding demand before deciding on activity
A demographic and catchment review should not simply produce a forecast of pupil numbers. The more useful analysis identifies how the school’s prospective population is changing, where different family groups live and which factors are likely to influence whether they will consider the school. Competitive position and market perception add context that population data alone cannot provide.
This creates a more informed basis for admissions and marketing decisions. It allows schools to distinguish between a short-term fluctuation and a longer-term change in demand, test whether established entry points remain sustainable and identify areas where a credible opportunity exists. It may also challenge investment in activities designed for a market that no longer looks quite as it did.
None of this assumes that demographic decline leads inevitably to falling rolls. We see schools strengthen their share of changing markets and extend their reach into new communities. Their decisions are more effective when they are based on a detailed understanding of local demand rather than national averages or historical assumptions.
Before the next marketing plan is finalised, leadership teams and governors should ask whether they understand the market they are planning for. Last year’s admissions figures describe what has happened. Demographic and catchment analysis can help explain the forces shaping what happens next.
Does your understanding of the market reflect what is changing on the ground?
RSAcademics’ demographic and catchment analysis brings together population trends, pupil data, geography, competitor activity and market insight. We help schools identify pressure and opportunity by entry point, test assumptions about their catchment and build a clearer evidence base for strategic planning.
If your school is reviewing future pupil demand, market position or admissions priorities, contact us to discuss the questions the analysis should answer and the scope of a review info@rsacademics.com